This past week, Tajikistan entered its fourth decade of sovereignty while significantly changing its policy vector; Tajik President Emomali Rahmon met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping while attending the SCO summit in Samarkand where they agreed on boosting cooperation and discussed issues of mutual interest; and the Tajik president held talks with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov amid turmoil on the two countries' border.
Image source: Ozodi.org
On September 9, Tajikistan observed the 31st anniversary of its independence. The country enters the fourth decade of its sovereignty with a population of 10 million and a per capita GDP of $890 (Radio Ozodi). Economically, Tajikistan maintains its livelihood mainly through migrant remittances from Russia, which constitute 40% of the GDP, and loans from China, to which it owes over $1.1 billion. Tajikistan also receives aid from Western partners, especially for budget support, defense as well as social projects. This is primarily due to the multi-vector foreign policy that the republic has pursued over the past decades. However, political analyst Parviz Mullojanov argues that the continuation of this multi-vector policy will not be easy, as Russia has weakened its influence in the east against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. While Tajikistan used to be a part of Russia's so-called sphere of influence, now China seems to be gradually taking over its place. Tajikistan supports China's position on the Taiwan issue, while it prefers to refrain from openly supporting Russia in Ukraine. The main motivation behind Tajikistan's cooperation with China is to build and expand the BRI routes in landlocked Central Asia, also giving a chance to China to create an alternative to Russia in trade between Europe and Asia, ultimately turning the region into a global transit and trade player.
On the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Emomali Rahmon and Xi Jinping signed three new documents on cooperation, including an additional protocol on building a part of the main section of the second phase of the Dushanbe-Kulma motorway that connects the two countries (Radio Ozodi). The heads of the two states discussed a wide range of issues, including strengthening economic ties, and the positive dynamics of growth in mutual trade, which has increased by 82 percent in the first half of this year.
The Tajik Statistics Office reported that in the first seven months of this year, Tajikistan's foreign trade turnover with the countries of the SCO amounted to $2.9 billion (Asia Plus). The statistics show that 70 percent of the country’s total trade turnover falls on the seven SCO states, while Tajikistan has been trading with 101 countries this year. China is third on the list of foreign trade partners with $766m. According to official Chinese statistics, foreign trade between the two countries in the first half of the year amounted to about $1.2 billion (Radio Ozodi), while the State Committee on Investments reported a total investment of $11 billion between 2001 and 2021. With a total investment of $3.3 billion, China ranks first among the foreign investors in Tajikistan (Asia Plus).
Elsewhere, amid increasing border clashes between the two countries, the leaders of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan met on September 16 in the city of Samarkand. The two agreed on ordering a ceasefire and withdrawal of troops. Meanwhile, the heads of the national security committees of the two countries formed a commission to investigate the causes of the incident.
The border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan runs for 970km, 519 of which have been demarcated, with the rest remaining a matter of disagreement. The territory between Kyrgyzstan's Batken oblast and Tajikistan's Sughd oblast remains disputed, which is also where confrontations between the sides arose earlier (Radio Ozodi). On the 14th of September, at around 07:15 a.m., new fire exchanges broke out between the sides, and now both sides blame each other for the outbreak of hostilities. On the morning of September 16, despite the agreement between the heads of the two states, border clashes resumed. Tajikistan has not provided any statistics on the wounded and killed, while the Kyrgyz side has reported more than 40 casualties.