The third week of November 2025 was defined by a transition from high-level geopolitical posturing to the practicalities of regional survival. The defining event was the Almaty Energy Summit, where Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan moved beyond years of seasonal disputes to sign a legally binding "Electricity-for-Water" protocol. This agreement serves as the region's primary defense against a projected 2026 drought. Simultaneously, the legal map of the region was permanently altered as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan finalized the ratification of their trilateral border junction, effectively closing a 30-year chapter of territorial ambiguity in the Fergana Valley. While state-level cooperation reached a zenith, the economic data from the ground suggested a cooling period, with Kazakhstan’s business sentiment dipping as enterprises braced for the 2026 fiscal cycle.
Foreign Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan signed the Protocol on Borders. Source: Kabar.kg
Diplomacy
The diplomatic spotlight was on the "Triple Border" resolution. On November 17, the Foreign Ministers of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan met in Tashkent to formally exchange instruments of ratification for the treaty defining the junction point of their national borders. This ceremony was described by Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov as a "historical milestone" that legally fixes the exact spot where the three nations meet, removing a persistent source of friction that has historically hampered trade and water management in the Fergana Valley (Kabar.kg; Qazinform). Parallel to this, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi conducted a regional tour, stopping in Bishkek and Dushanbe to finalize "livelihood and development" grants worth 1.5 billion yuan, specifically targeting rural infrastructure and school construction—a move seen as a precursor to the massive CKU railway construction phase starting in early 2026 (Security Council Report).
Economic Policy, Trade, and Finance
The week’s economic narrative was one of record-breaking figures meeting structural bottlenecks. Uzbekistan reported a staggering 21.8% year-on-year increase in foreign trade turnover, reaching $72.8 billion by the end of November, with gold exports accounting for nearly one-third of that value (Daryo.uz). However, this growth masked a "cooling" business sentiment in neighboring Kazakhstan. The National Bank of Kazakhstan reported a drop in its Business Climate Index, as entrepreneurs voiced concerns over high borrowing costs and the logistical strain of meeting the 2026 OPEC+ production adjustments (Trend.az). In Dushanbe, the government celebrated an 8.4% GDP growth rate for 2025, primarily driven by the export of electricity and minerals, though analysts noted that Tajikistan remains the most vulnerable to shifts in Russian and Chinese investment cycles (Timesca.com).
Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability
Environmental policy took a decisive turn toward "Active Resource Swapping" this week. On November 22, in Almaty, energy and water ministers from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan signed a trilateral protocol to stabilize the Toktogul Reservoir. Under the deal, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan throughout the winter of 2025–2026. This allows Kyrgyzstan to halt its winter hydropower generation and accumulate water in the Toktogul reservoir, which will then be released back to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the 2026 growing season to ensure the irrigation of millions of hectares of agricultural land in the south (The Astana Times; Timesca.com).
Digital Transformation and Infrastructure
Infrastructure news this week was highlighted by the completion of the modernization of the Toktogul Hydropower Plant on November 18. The commissioning of the fourth generating unit raised the plant’s capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW, a critical buffer for Kyrgyzstan’s winter heating season (Timesca.com). On the digital front, Kazakhstan signaled an aggressive push into healthcare AI, announcing new protocols for the use of artificial intelligence in the early detection of strokes and cancer, which will be integrated into the national "Digital Office" platform in early 2026 (Timesca.com).
Security and Defense Cooperation
Regional security agencies focused on the "Southern Frontier" as the year wound down. On November 15, a high-level Tajik delegation arrived in Kabul for meetings with the Taliban leadership to discuss diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation, signaling a pragmatic shift in Dushanbe’s stance toward its neighbor (Security Council Report). Internally, the Kazakh military continued its domestic drone production initiative, successfully testing new surveillance models designed to patrol the vast northern and western borders as part of the 2026 "Smart Border" program (Timesca.com).
