This week’s regional agenda was dominated by high-level diplomacy in Dushanbe, where Central Asian leaders joined Russian President Vladimir Putin and other CIS heads for the Central Asia–Russia summit (Oct 9) and the CIS Heads of State Council (Oct 10). Leaders emphasized security coordination, economic ties, and a proposed “CIS Plus” outreach format. Alongside the summits, Kazakhstan tightened monetary policy with a surprise rate hike and reported stronger reserves. Uzbekistan advanced its regional-cooperation pitch—from Afghanistan reconstruction to investment climate reforms—and engaged UNICEF on Afghan humanitarian coordination. The week also saw fresh items on regional infrastructure and energy, plus a headline-grabbing note from space as the first Kazakh woman completed a Blue Origin suborbital flight.

Dushanbe Diplomacy: Central Asia–Russia & CIS Heads of State Council meetings

Regional attention this week centered on Dushanbe, where the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Armenia convened for two days of back-to-back meetings—the Central Asia–Russia Summit on October 9 and the CIS Heads of State Council on October 10. The gatherings emphasized multilateral coordination on security, energy, economic integration, and cultural cooperation, while reaffirming Dushanbe’s role as a diplomatic venue in the post-Soviet region (Times of Central Asia).

At the CIS Heads of State Council meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, leaders adopted several key documents shaping the Commonwealth’s future cooperation. One of the central outcomes was the “2030 Military Cooperation Concept,” which outlines principles of open, predictable, and non-aligned defense collaboration not directed against any third countries (Kaz Inform). The concept is said to aim to strengthen mutual trust, regional stability, and good-neighborly relations both within the CIS and with external partners. It also sets long-term goals for the next five years, emphasizing closer coordination among defense ministries and general staffs, and prioritizing the creation of unified systems in air defense, communications, radiological and chemical monitoring, radar identification, and geographic information management to enhance interoperability and combat readiness.

During the same meeting, the “CIS Program for Cooperation in Countering Terrorism and Extremism for 2026–2028” was also approved (Kaz Inform). This program focuses on improving coordination among national authorities and specialized agencies, expanding the legal framework, and developing analytical, scientific, and educational capacities to prevent and investigate terrorist and extremist crimes. It includes plans to upgrade the Anti-Terrorism Center’s specialized database, enhance information sharing, and strengthen human resource development in the security sector.

Additionally, the Heads of State reappointed Sergey Lebedev as Secretary General of the CIS for a new three-year term (Kaz Inform). Together, these decisions mark a comprehensive effort to deepen regional security integration and institutional continuity within the Commonwealth.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev used the platform to reaffirm Kazakhstan’s commitment to empowering the CIS as “a space of creation and progress,” highlighting the commonwealth’s role in maintaining trust and multilateralism (Astana Times). Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed joint CIS investment in the reconstruction of Afghanistan’s economy, linking peace in Afghanistan to regional stability and economic growth (Daryo). Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon, hosting the meetings, stressed economic modernization and industrial cooperation within the CIS, while also proposing an expansion of the “CIS Plus” format to engage new partner countries (Asia Plus).

During the Central Asia–Russia Summit on October 9, the six leaders underscored the significance of practical regional cooperation with Russia, focusing on trade, logistics, and technology (Astana Times). President Putin described Russia - Kazakhstan relations as a special one, referring to Kazakhstan as the initiator of the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union and integration processes in the post-Soviet space (TASS), while President Mirziyoyev expressed his gratitude to the President of Russia for his commitment to developing a full-scale strategic partnership with Central Asia, supporting initiatives aimed at giving new momentum to the interaction between Central Asian countries, and emphasized that “Russia has been, is, and will always be a key strategic partner and ally for us” (President’s Portal). He also underlined Uzbekistan’s determination for “alignment of national programs in the field of road, rail, and air transport” and the “development of a comprehensive infrastructure partnership plan”, with the ultimate goal of creating “an integrated, interconnected regional transport infrastructure that is resilient to external challenges” (News Central Asia).

The summit concluded with the adoption of a joint action plan for 2025–2027 covering more than 50 initiatives in trade, energy, and digital integration (Kaz Inform).

Bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Dushanbe events included President Rahmon’s separate talks with the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus, covering cooperation in trade, industry, and security (24.KG). Officials from Tajikistan and Russia also signed 16 agreements in areas ranging from migration and transport to industrial parks and Rosatom-supported environmental studies, reflecting Moscow’s deepening industrial footprint in Tajikistan (Asia Plus).

Monetary policy, markets, and multilateral outlooks

Kazakhstan’s National Bank delivered a 150-basis-point hike to 18 percent, its first increase in seven months, citing rising inflation pressures and financial-stability risks; officials signaled that deposit rates would move up in tandem and kept further tightening on the table should price dynamics require it (Kursiv; Kursiv). Follow-up reporting linked the policy move to potential pass-through effects on mortgage affordability and investment sentiment (Kursiv). It was also noted that September-end international reserves stood at 55.5 billion US dollars and KASE capitalization near 40 trillion tenge, setting the macro backdrop for Q4 of this year (Kursiv).

In other economic news, a World Bank commentary projected Central Asia to lead regional growth in 2025 despite the global slowdown, an important signal for fiscal planning and MDB pipeline design (Times of Central Asia). The report projects GDP growth in the region at 2.4% in real terms this year, down from 3.7% in 2024. The slowdown is primarily attributed to weaker growth in Russia. However, excluding Russia, which accounts for about 40% of the region’s total economic output, growth is expected to hold steady at approximately 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026.

Energy and industry (hydropower, nuclear agenda, industrial projects)

Energy cooperation advanced through a trilateral push on the Kambar-Ata-1 Hydropower Plant in Kyrgyzstan, with EBRD support highlighted as part of efforts by Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan to unlock a 1,860-MW project projected to generate around 5.6 billion kWh annually; the scheme is positioned as a regional balancing asset for cross-border power trade (Astana Times). The EU is reportedly going to allocate $2.4 billion to the three Central Asian states for this purpose, after the third ministerial roundtable on the preparation of the Kambarata Hydroelectric Power Plant-1 project was held in Brussels, Belgium, with the participation of the authorities of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

Kazakhstan also floated a regional “nuclear council” concept aimed at concentrating expertise on the fuel cycle and waste management, indicating renewed attention to nuclear governance as countries weigh long-term decarbonization options (Times of Central Asia). Kazakhstan has some of the world's largest uranium reserves, and a major part of the initiative is to not just mine but also process this uranium into nuclear fuel for both domestic use and export. As reported previously, the country is considering building nuclear power plants to diversify its energy supply, building upon its established experience with the peaceful use of nuclear materials through international cooperation. A key component of the concept is to work with international partners, including the IAEA, to develop the necessary technical and legal frameworks and ensure the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

During the bilateral talks between the presidents of Tajikistan and Russia, documents including industrial-park and light-industry cluster plans were signed, signaling a pipeline of manufacturing-oriented investments alongside broader security and migration deals (Asia Plus). The two leaders also signed a joint declaration aimed at deepening the strategic partnership and alliance between the two countries, and held a joint press conference emphasizing the friendly and allied nature of the bilateral relations.

Basin governance and Water coordination

Under Kazakhstan’s IFAS chairmanship, the IFAS Board met in Astana to review 42 ongoing Aral Basin environmental projects and prepare for a heads-of-state IFAS meeting next year; authorities also flagged potential World Bank grant projects, underscoring donor interest in the basin’s ecological recovery and water efficiency (Kaz Inform).

Separately, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan convened the first meeting of their joint water management commission in Dushanbe to coordinate access to hydrotechnical facilities for irrigation and flood control—an incremental but important step to reduce seasonal tensions and improve cross-border water governance (Kaz Inform).

In Uzbekistan, the Foreign Investors Council reviewed land-allocation reform to streamline procedures and improve transparency, as part of a broader effort to enhance the investment climate for manufacturing and services (UZ Daily). Tashkent also discussed expanding humanitarian cooperation with UNICEF related to Afghanistan, in a move to reinforce its role as a logistics and dialogue hub for international partners engaging in relief efforts for Afghanistan (UZ Daily).

Society and science note

A widely viewed soft-power milestone came as Danna Karagussova became the first Kazakh woman to fly to space on Blue Origin’s NS-4 suborbital flight, a story that resonated across regional media and public discourse (Orda). To date, Blue Origin has flown 75 people into space as part of its growing commercial astronaut program.