This week, the media across Central Asia covered several important diplomatic stories, such as the visits of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and the visit of Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu to Washington D.C. They also reported on multiple critical trade and investment events, such as the Tashkent International Investment Forum, the EBRD’s plan to invest $1.1 billion in Uzbekistan in 2025, and Kyrgyzstan and India signing a new Bilateral Investment Treaty. Several outlets also noted Kazakhstan’s announcement that Rosatom will construct the country’s first NPP, while China’s CNNC will lead the construction of its second. Others reported on Rosatom expanding its footprint in Uzbekistan, announcing the construction of a large-scale NPP alongside the small modular plant it is already building. Lastly, multiple sources noted Kazakhstan’s discovery of another 38 mineral deposits.

Investment:

The Uzbekistani capital hosted the fourth Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) from June 9-12 (The Times of Central Asia). Two thousand five hundred global business leaders, ministers, and representatives of international financial institutions from 93 countries attended the Forum. The Forum served to underscore the country’s economic progress, promote investment, and strengthen partnerships. Addressing the Forum, Uzbekistani Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade Laziz Kudratov highlighted Uzbekistan’s significant economic reforms, which have enabled it to attract $90 billion in foreign direct investment and achieve GDP growth of 6.5% last year. In his address, President Mirziyoyev noted that regional trade in Central Asia increased 3.5 times in the previous eight years to $13 billion. He proposed a “Concept of an Integrated Region for Investment and Trade” to boost regional trade further. During the third plenary session of the Foreign Investors Council, President Mirziyoyev announced the launch of numerous public-private partnership projects valued at $4.5 billion in 2025 (Daryo). The projects concern water management, transport, and energy. The Foreign Investors Council is a consultative body that coordinates investment and policy with international companies and financial institutions. The President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Odile Renaud-Basso, and representatives of various other organizations attended the meeting. President Odile Renaud-Basso noted that Uzbekistan is the EBRD’s largest partner in the region, with $1 billion invested last year. President Mirziyoyev also confirmed that the tax rates will remain unchanged until 2028 and noted that the government recently promulgated ten laws and decrees to align national regulations with global standards.

During the forum, Minister Kudratov held several bilateral meetings and signed multiple agreements (Daryo). He met with Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce, Nooruddin Azizi, and concluded two agreements: a Preferential Trade Agreement and a Cooperation Program in Trade, Economic, and Industrial Spheres for 2025–2026. He also met with the Governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Nobumitsu Hayashi. JBIC’s investments in Uzbekistan cover multiple energy, telecommunications, petrochemicals, and infrastructure projects worth an estimated $3.7 billion. They explored new public-private partnerships and expanded non-sovereign funding. JBIC also underlined its interest in several projects, including new solar and wind power plants in the Samarkand and Karakalpakstan regions and a $250 million 800-bed hospital in Samarkand. Additionally, Uzbekistan finalized a memorandum of understanding with the Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD) and the OPEC Fund for International Development, which agreed to provide $500 million towards the development of Uzbekistan’s private sector from 2025 to 2030. Their cooperation has already resulted in 16 projects worth $374.95 million being completed, with another eight projects worth $292.41 million currently being implemented. Lastly, they signed a $5 billion deal with Agalarov Development to construct the Sea Breeze Uzbekistan resort in the Tashkent region. 

The forum aligns with the goals of the “Uzbekistan 2030” development strategy, which aims to raise GDP to $200 billion by the end of the decade. FDI is central to achieving this goal. Since 2022, the TIIF has brought about 357 investment deals valued at $44 billion (Gazeta.uz). This year, investment agreements worth $30.5 billion were concluded at the forum, a 14.6% increase compared to $26.6 billion in 2024 (Daryo). The second day of the forum witnessed the signing of 30 agreements with several international companies, such as ACWA Power, Bell Engineering Software Technologists, HYPER Partners, Shaanxi Road and Bridge Group, TK-CH GROUP, and Uz Oman Capital (Daryo). On the final day, over 20 agreements were signed covering agriculture, construction, finance, water management, and labour development. Over 100 Uzbekistani manufacturers also exhibited their products at an industrial exhibition (Gazeta.uz). In addition, 36 panel sessions attended by 150 speakers discussed investment policy, regional integration, digitalization, and energy policy took place.

Montfort Eurasia released its Investor Perception Report at the same time as the forum (Montfort Eurasia). The report noted that since 2023, U.S. and U.K. investor interest in Central Asia has increased threefold. The report also praised Uzbekistan’s recent mining law, which provides a clear legal framework for foreign companies wishing to invest in the country’s critical mineral sector. It also highlighted pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and urban development as promising sectors. U.S. and U.K. investors rated their knowledge of the region at 7.36 out of ten, compared to 4.92 in 2023. In addition, 47% of surveyed investors expressed strong interest in Central Asia in contrast to only 15.5% last year.

Kyrgyzstan and India recently ratified a new Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) (Daryo). India’s Minister for Finance, Nirmala Sitharaman, and Kyrgyzstan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zheenbek Kulubaev, signed the instrument of ratification at a meeting in New Delhi. They originally signed the treaty in 2019. However, it only came into effect on June 5, 2025. The treaty will ensure the protection of investments and create a stable investment environment. Nevertheless, the treaty's framework will exclude certain areas, such as taxation, government procurement, and licensing. Lastly, the treaty also establishes an Investor-State Dispute Settlement mechanism.

The Uzbekistan-United States Business Forum took place at the Tashkent International Investment Forum (UZ Daily). The Uzbekistani Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade and the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce organized the event. In 2024, trade between the countries rose by 15% to $881.7 million, while U.S. investments reached $612.6 million. In addition, 314 businesses with U.S. investment operate in Uzbekistan. The Forum brought together 150 participants, including 100 from major U.S. companies, such as Boeing, Visa, Coca-Cola, Medtronic, John Deere, CNH, Morgan Stanley, NASDAQ, and Abbott. Attendees explored Uzbekistan’s investment potential, expanding trade, strengthening institutional ties, and launching joint projects across numerous critical sectors, such as green energy, agriculture, pharmaceutical, IT, finance, and engineering.  

At a meeting with President Mirziyoyev, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso announced the bank intended to invest €1.1 billion in Uzbekistan in 2025 (Daryo). In recent years, they have invested €5.5 billion into the country. During their meeting, they also discussed modernizing the water supply system, improving energy efficiency, developing the mortgage market, upgrading infrastructure in free economic zones, and expanding support for small and medium-sized businesses. They also considered progressing public-private partnerships in education and healthcare. The EBRD forecasts that Uzbekistan will experience GDP growth of 6% in 2025 and 2026. Additionally, the bank provided a $250 million sovereign loan to upgrade 110 irrigation pumping stations across the country (The Times of Central Asia). The project will reduce electricity consumption by 251,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) annually and carbon dioxide emissions by 117,000 tons. The project is part of Uzbekistan’s national irrigation modernization program, which aims to lower electricity consumption across the irrigation system by 25%. Uzbekistan operates a total of 1600 pumping stations and has invested $1 billion in upgrading major stations in recent years. However, the deterioration of smaller pumping stations continues to drive up costs. In an effort to conserve water, 550 kilometers of canals have been paved with concrete, saving 450 million cubic meters of water annually. In 2025, they expect to concrete 18000 kilometers of canals.

Renewable Energy:

The Turkish 77 Construction Company plans to construct a $65 million wind farm in Herat, Afghanistan (Daryo). This announcement follows earlier statements from the Taliban outlining their plans to develop Afghanistan’s renewable energy potential. The first phase will see the building of a 43.2 MW wind power plant. Overall, they aim to generate 43.2 MW of wind power and 5 MW of solar at the plant. Under the plan, the Taliban seeks to generate 200 MW of wind power in Herat. Turkish companies have invested a total of $7 billion in Afghanistan in recent years.

Diplomatic Events:

Last week, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev visited Uzbekistan (Daryo). He held high-level talks with his Uzbekistani President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during his visit. The two leaders discussed their countries’ cooperation across several sectors: trade, technology, agriculture, and education. More specifically, they explored trade diversification and expanding textiles, food, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and industrial equipment exports. They agreed to open trade houses in their respective capitals and considered the possibility of Uzbekistan’s Migration Agency opening an office in Sofia. In addition, they emphasized the importance of digitalization efforts and multiple joint ventures in the agricultural, pharmaceutical, and geological industries. They also agreed to expand cultural and educational exchanges. Concluding their talks, both Presidents signed a joint roadmap and a declaration on future cooperation. They decided to involve regional leaders and the heads of major companies in the work of the intergovernmental commission. The Foreign Ministers of both countries also approved the Cooperation Program between the Ministries of Foreign Affairs for 2026–2027 (Kun). Lastly, President Radev also attended the 4^th Tashkent International Investment Forum.  

After his visit to Uzbekistan, President Radev arrived in Astana (Kazinform). During his visit, he met with his Kazakhstani counterpart, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Both leaders praised the work of the Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation. They discussed expanding collaboration across numerous sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, and transport. President Tokayev proposed establishing a working group for cooperation in transport and logistics and revealed that both sides discussed the Bulgarian ports of Varna and Burgas joining the Trans-Caspian International Corridor (Kazinform). Following their deliberations, the two countries signed several agreements, including memoranda of understanding between their respective transport ministries, the cities of Sofia and Astana, Shymkent and Plovdiv, and their chambers of commerce (Kazinform). Both leaders also attended the Kazakhstan-Bulgaria Business Forum held in conjunction with President Radev’s visit (Kazinform). They also indicated their intention to create a joint Business Council (Kazinform). Trade between the two countries amounted to $83 million in the first four months of the year. In 2024, bilateral trade reached $375 million. Bulgaria and Kazakhstan are also currently implementing joint projects valued at $117 million (Kazinform). President Radev also met with Kazakhstani Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov to discuss cooperation across various areas, including trade, investment, and transport. Additionally, PM Bektenov proposed expanding Kazakhstani organic agricultural exports to Bulgaria and implementing several joint processing projects. On the sidelines of the visit, the CEO of Samruk Kazyna, Nurlan Zhakupov, confirmed that Kazakhstan will supply uranium to Bulgaria’s two 1.2 MW nuclear reactors (Kazinform).

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Tashkent on June 8 (Kun). After his arrival, he met President Mirziyoyev for talks at the Kuksaroy Presidential Palace. During their discussions, they considered political, trade, and investment cooperation to date. They explored expanding bilateral trade and diversifying the range of goods traded. Following their meeting, they concluded a Joint Declaration on the Establishment of Strategic Partnership and several other agreements concerning agriculture, standardization and goods conformity, energy market regulation, and a cooperation program between foreign ministries for 2025–2026. Uzbekistan also signed an industrial cooperation program with some of Slovakia’s leading companies. The program outlines multiple agricultural, automotive, pharmaceutical, tourism, and energy projects. In addition, they discussed establishing a joint fund to aid IT startups and touched on organized labor migration as a future area of cooperation. Both countries finalized several joint research and cultural programs. The visit concluded with the signing of a roadmap to oversee the implementation of the agreements and programs. Prime Minister Fico also attended the 4^th Tashkent International Investment Forum.

Prime Minister Fico arrived in Astana on June 11, continuing his tour of the region. He held extended talks with President Tokayev. The two leaders considered bilateral economic and political collaboration (Kazinform). President Tokayev indicated Kazakhstan was ready to export uranium, oil, and agricultural products to Slovakia. He also emphasized the prospects for joint projects across several sectors. He also held talks with his Kazakhstani counterpart, Olzhas Bektenov, on trade and economic cooperation (The Astana Times). In 2024, trade between both countries reached $140 million. However, in the first four months of 2025, bilateral trade surged by 46%. They explored future joint ventures in organic agriculture and the development of transport routes. Both Prime Ministers also attended the Slovakia-Kazakhstan Business Forum. Participants discussed trade and investment cooperation across a range of sectors, including water management, defense, energy, agriculture, healthcare, and IT. They specifically explored how Slovak firms could participate in Kazakhstan’s Partnership Water Initiative, which aims to modernize the country’s water and irrigation infrastructure, and Astana Hub International Technopark, which supports 1500 IT startups.

Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu visited Washington D.C. on June 14 (The Astana Times). During his visit, he met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee James Risch. Their discussions focused on developing trade and investment in IT and critical minerals.  

Environment:    

Officials from all five Central Asia countries attended the recent launch of the Central Asia Water-Land Nexus (CAWLN) program at an event in Dushanbe (Daryo). This latest environmental initiative aims to improve regional water security and prevent land degradation, which reportedly costs the region $6 billion annually. The CAWLN program seeks to devise a science-based land and water management framework. The program, which the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) support, will further rural development while protecting biodiversity and preventing deforestation. The overall program includes seven projects. Two projects concern transboundary issues in the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya basins. Four address various national land and water management issues, while another aims to coordinate and align national policies across the region. In addition, the program aims to implement satellite-based joint planning and monitoring tools.

Nuclear Energy:

Uzbekistan and Rosatom have expanded their cooperation in the nuclear energy sector (Daryo). Meeting at the Tashkent International Investment Forum, both sides finalized a deal to construct a two-unit large-scale nuclear power plant. This large plant is in addition to the six 55 MW small modular nuclear reactors Rosatom is already building near Jizzakh. The Russian Minister of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov, and Uzbekistani Minister of Investments, Industry and Trade, Laziz Kudratov, attended the meeting. Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev confirmed in April that they already had plans, including designs and financial models, for a larger plant in Uzbekistan.

On June 14, Kazakhstan’s nuclear energy agency announced that Rosatom would lead the consortium constructing its first nuclear power plant (NPP) (Kazinform). Kazakhstan had previously shortlisted four companies for the project, including Russia’s Rosatom, China’s CNNC, South Korea’s ICHNP and France’s EDF. The shortlisted companies had to submit technical and commercial documents concerning estimated construction cost, project timeframe, financing models, personnel training, and the nuclear fuel cycle. The Interdepartmental Commission for the Development of the Nuclear Industry considered the Russian proposal the most advantageous as it included government-backed export financing. Kazakhstan is one of the largest uranium producers in the world, yet continues to rely on coal for most of its electricity generation (Reuters). In October, voters backed the construction of an NPP in a national referendum. The NPP will use VVER-1200 Generation 3+ reactors, generating 2.4 GW by 2035. It will be built on the shores of Lake Balkhash near the village of Ulken. The nuclear energy agency also announced that the Chinese company CNNC would lead the construction of Kazakhstan’s second NPP (Kursiv). They have yet to choose a site for the second plant, but several locations are being considered, including Aktau in the Mangystau region and Kurchatov in the East Kazakhstan region (Kursiv).  

Inflation:

The Uzbekistani Central Bank confirmed that it would maintain its base interest rate at 14% (The Tashkent Times). The Central Bank cited increasing economic growth, high government spending, and persistently high core inflation due to the decision to raise energy prices last year as reasons for its decision. While annualized inflation fell to 8.7% as the effect of the energy tariff increase wore off, core inflation rose to 8.5% due to high demand resulting from increased money transfers from abroad. However, inflation expectations also remain high (Kun). They fell slightly in May to 13.7%, down 0.5% compared to April. The main factor influencing expectations remained utility tariffs, indicating the continued effect of the energy price increase last year. Meanwhile, the expectations of businesses rose by 0.1% to 12.9%.

Economic Forecasts:   

The World Bank raised its GDP growth projections for Uzbekistan (Kun). In 2025 and 2026, the World Bank forecasts GDP growth of 5.9%, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to its earlier forecast. Moreover, they anticipate growth to slow incrementally to 5.8% in 2027. Regarding Central Asia, they expect growth to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026-2027. They lowered their forecast for Kazakhstan by 0.2% to 4.5% for 2025. In addition, they expect growth to fall further to 3.6-3.6% in 2026-2027. However, their Global Economic Prospects report warns that slowing growth in Russia and China may have a knock-on effect on Central Asian economies in the form of reduced foreign trade. They also cautioned about persistently high inflation. Nevertheless, they noted positive trends in remittances and tourist arrivals.

Transport and Logistics:

Kazakhstan opened its first multimodal terminal at the port of Poti in Georgia on June 9 (The Astana Times). The terminal will serve as a key facility along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). Initially, the terminal will have a capacity of 120000 tons annually. In 2024, the amount of cargo transported along the TITR increased by 60% to 4.5 million tons. They plan to increase this to 10 million tons in the next three years. Kazakhstan, Russia, and China recently agreed to establish a joint transport-logistics center (Kazinform). Kazakhstan Temir Zholy, Slavtrans-Service and Xi’an Free Trade Port Construction and Operation signed the deal at the Kazakhstan Exporters’ Forum in Astana. The centre will have an annual capacity of 100000 containers. Kazakhstan also plans to build joint terminals in Constanța, Romania and Urumqi. They hope to increase the capacity of all external terminals fivefold to 2.5 million containers. The Kazakhstani Ministry of Transport announced this week that it will construct a new container terminal and shipyard in Aktau and a new oil terminal in Kuryk by 2030 (Kazinform). The new container terminal will increase the capacity of the port of Aktau by 350000 containers. In addition, the shipyard will construct two merchant ships and five support ships and repair 35 ships annually. Meanwhile, the new oil terminal in Kuryk will increase the port’s capacity by 1 million tons. Kazakhstan Railways and the dry port of Xi’an recently launched the new Zhetysu container terminal in Almaty (Kursiv). The terminal has an annual capacity of 115000 containers and can handle 1100 at once. The projects align with Kazakhstan’s goal of becoming a logistics hub in Central Asia.

Mining:

In the first quarter of 2025, Kazakhstan discovered 38 new deposits of copper, nickel, coal, gold and other rare earth metals (Kursiv). The deposits hold 2.6 million tons of rare earth metals, 1.1 billion tons of coal, 3.7 million tons of copper and nickel, and 19 tons of gold. The Kazakhstani government has prioritized geological exploration, allocating $44.4 million for 2024-2026 and increasing the area explored from 2000 square kilometers in 2024 to 2.2 million by 2026. Since 2018, mining companies invested $827.3 million in Kazakhstan and are expected to invest $206.8 million in exploration alone in 2025. In recent years, the Kazakhstani government has endeavored to streamline the licensing process, requiring the reporting instead of the predefining of work volumes.