The most significant event of this week was the Astana International Forum (AIF), which took place on June 8 and 9. AIF highlighted Central Asia's key role in contributing to international discussions on development and security. Media outlets also covered the bilateral talks between Qatar and Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as the efforts to strengthen ties between China and Afghanistan. Additionally, Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Tajikistan received media attention, and the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, issued on Tuesday, reported that the global economy remains in a precarious state. The institution also covered the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, warning against its consequences for the country, the region, and the global community.
Source: Jibek Joly TV
Astana International Forum (AIF) is an important addition to major economic forums held annually, which has successfully demonstrated to the world that middle powers are capable of facilitating fruitful debates on topics that are now high on the international agenda and finding viable solutions. Kazakhstan's goal to become one of the biggest digital hubs in Eurasia was made evident by President Tokayev at the opening ceremony and plenary session on June 8 (Astana Times). By 2025, it is anticipated that the market for digital technology will grow by 50% to $6.8 trillion. The establishment of the UN Digital Solution Centre for Sustainable Development in Central Asia in Kazakhstan, which was unanimously endorsed by 62 nations on May 16, was a clear step towards this goal.
Discussions on energy security and the transformation to a green economy were among the key takeaways from day two of the AIF on June 9 (Astana Times). President Tokayev asserted that Kazakhstan may develop into a hub for renewable energy, and suggested holding a Regional Climate Summit in Kazakhstan in 2026 under the sponsorship of the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations in order to promote discussion and identify effective climate change solutions (Astana Times). President Tokayev also advocated for a UN-led project to solve the water issue in the area, citing the critically low water level in the two major rivers of the Central Asian region, the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya, which could decrease by about 15% by 2050 (Kazakhstan Today). Wildfires, which are currently blazing in Eastern Kazakhstan for the second time since late May, are raising more concerns about water shortages and other environmental problems in the region (Office of Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister). On June 11 and in view of the loss of life in Semey Ormany Nature Reserve in the Abai region, President Tokayev expressed his condolences to the families and relatives of the forestry workers and declared Monday, June 12, a Day of National Mourning in Kazakhstan (Kaz Inform).
In trans-regional news, the Amir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, arrived in Central Asia earlier in the week. The leader of Qatar started the tour by first visiting Uzbekistan, subsequently proceeding to Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and finishing the tour in Tajikistan (Asia-Plus). During the visit to Kyrgyzstan, the leaders of Qatar and Kyrgyzstan signed 13 cooperation documents (24.Kg). The signed documents cover various areas, such as military cooperation, finance, legal sphere, healthcare, and others. For 25 years, Kyrgyzstan and Qatar have maintained a long-standing political partnership, characterized by reciprocal visits, remarkable events, and strong collaboration in international organizations like the UN and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The recent signing of bilateral agreements across different domains is regarded as a favorable advancement (24.Kg).
The Amir continued his Central Asian tour by joining the Astana International Forum. During a bilateral discussion, Kazakhstan and Qatar agreed to increase exports to Qatar by $250 million and entered a new chapter of their strengthening partnership (Qaz Monitor, Turkmenportal). Having signed fifteen new cooperation agreements during Amir's visit to Tashkent, Qatar is also preparing to take part in the implementation of investment projects worth $12 billion in Uzbekistan (KUN).
In other news, the World Bank produced a report on the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, indicating that 92% of the country's population lives in poverty due to the high rate of unemployment (TOLOnews). Economists believe that the UN needs to provide more humanitarian and food assistance to raise the economic indicators and to improve the dire situation. Throughout the two-decade presence of the United States and its allies in Afghanistan, the situation in the country remained unstable, and poverty, crime, human rights and other issues remained unaddressed, while Afghanistan could use its abundance of natural resources to boost its potential for substantial economic growth. Instead, the population of Afghanistan is now left to struggle with challenges relating to administrative corruption, murder, theft, and other criminal activities (Bakhtarnews). However, the Taliban government is currently trying to boost its relations with the second-largest economy, China. This approach can potentially help Afghanistan to attract more Chinese investors, which can help to improve the situation of the country in the fields of technology, education, agriculture, and trade (The Khaama Press). By working together, this partnership might be a remedy to enhance Afghanistan’s political and economic condition, while providing China with access to the abundant natural resources in Afghanistan.
The World Bank also published its most recent Global Economic Prospects report on June 6 (World Bank). According to the forecast, global growth will decrease from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.1% this year. With projections of 4.6% growth next year, China stands out as a remarkable exception to the general trend of advanced economies experiencing economic slowdowns, while the war in Ukraine continues to hinder economic prospects in Europe and Central Asia. According to World Bank projections, the ECA region's growth is expected to stagnate, just marginally increasing to 1.4% in 2023. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are predicted to see slower growth in 2023, at 6.5% and 5.1%, respectively, due to decreasing remittances from Russia (UZ Daily). With a 3.5% growth projection, Kazakhstan is the only country in Central Asia with a prognosis for 2023 that is greater than its 2022 estimate. Kazakhstan’s energy-sector-driven growth counteracts the region's slowdown.
Elsewhere, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tajikistan on June 6 on an official visit to the Central Asian country. During their discussions, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Foreign Minister Lavrov addressed a range of urgent issues concerning bilateral cooperation in the political, trade, and economic fields (Asia-Plus). The two sides also discussed the issue of labor migrants and the mass detention of Tajiks in Russia. Asia-Plus reports that around 100 Tajik labor migrants were apprehended by the police in the Moscow oblast between May 23 and May 24, and on May 19, around 100 Tajik students were subject to severe beatings by Russian police. 15 of the students received injuries that require surgical intervention. The parties also expressed their opinions on various global issues, with particular emphasis on the situation in Afghanistan. The Russian diplomat clarified that Moscow does not formally acknowledge the government established by the Taliban. Nevertheless, Russia is willing to establish bilateral ties if the Taliban fulfills specific commitments. These commitments encompass addressing terrorism, combating drug trafficking, and ensuring the protection of human rights in Afghanistan, including those of the Tajik population (Asia-Plus).
